Opinion: THE CUP TRAIL (2) Flying Stakes the Key ? Yes but…..
Whoever wins or won the Flying Stakes this year is more likely than not to be the New Zealand Cup favourite on the big day It seems written in stone on recent results but you must remember that some genuine superstars have helped make that so. When they are not around the stats change markedly
Two of the last five Cup winners did not even run in the race and another beat one home
Generally speaking though the Flying Stakes has become the best guide to the Cup, largely because of where it is placed.
It was first raced on Labour Day only in 1994 so records up until then when it was run in September can’t really count.
And it took a while for someone to win the double. That was Iraklis in 1997 followed by Christian Cullen in 1998 and Yulestar in 2000, All of a sudden the Flying Stakes was the lead up race star.
Worthy of mention perhaps is Il Vicolo the 1996 Cup winner who finished only 5th in the Flying Stakes but it was such a tight finish the first four horses home ran 2.58.4
But in the five years after Yulestar’s win no Flying Stakes winner completed the double.
After Flashing Red did the double in 2006 it was another five years before the Flying Stakes-Cup double was accomplished when Terror to Love and Lazarus posted multiple wins in both races to right the stats ship
Thefixer did not run at Ashburton in 2018 and Cruz Bromac did not figure last year though he was fresh off the plane from Australia and not a lot was expected.
But to put the theories into the most positive light since 2012 five of the last 8 NZ Cup winners have won the Flying Stakes on the way through, Adore Me adding to that list and the only mare since 1994 to win the race.
But if they ran at Ashburton and were in the first four in the Flying Stakes they have a royal chance of winning.
Cup winners this century Kym’s Girl (3rd) Just and Excuse (3rd in 2003;did not start 2004) ;Changeover (2nd in 2008) ; Terror to Love (5th in 2011) ; Monkey King (6th in 2010) were all at least prominent at Ashburton and only six Cup winners did not run at Ashburton in a leadup - a plus for the race when in four of those those years the winner was either from Australia or from the North Island.
Upsets ? There have been a few. But then again a few to mention.
Hoppy’s Jet paid $31 in 1996 This century Panky’s Pacer won paying $28 in 2001; Flashing Red was at $15 in 2006 and the following year his stablemate Tribute paid the record modern price of $37. But 8 of the last 9 winners have been favourite, bearing in mind four of those were won by Terror to Love and Lazarus. And Adore Me was 4/3 in the betting and was again at good odds winning the NZ Cup. Modern prejudices against mares die hard.
Dream About Me was often at generous odds in big southern events in spite of her proven reputation against the boys.
Other stats worth a mention:
Quinellas:
A surprising number of quinella doubles over the two races going all the way back to 1960 when False Step and Sun Chief were first and second in both
Bee Bee Cee and Master Musician quinellaed the first “modern”Flying Stakes and the NZ Cup in that order and Christian Cullen and Iraklis repeated in 1998. Then came Changeover and Baileys Dream in 2008 and Terror To Love and Pembrook Benny in 2012. Not so great since but remember two Cup winners since were not at Ashburton and a third was under a travel burden and at long odds. So a good record for a major race.
Second (or Third) Time Around.
Spankem one of the likely Cup favourites (some will say he will be the fave if he wins again on Monday) has to climb a statistical hill to claim the big one at Addington but not one that will bother him.
He ran second in the Cup last year after winning the Flying Stakes and his former stablemate Smolda did the same thing in 2015 going down to Arden Rooney narrowly . He did not return to Ashburton. Monkey King shows that most things are possible.
He had four attempts at the race and never won it but the “consolation”prizes were two New Zealand Cups in 2009 and 2010.
He had been 11th at Ashburton in 2007; 3rd in 2008; did not run in 2009 the year of his first cup and was 6th in 2010 when he won his second. He tried again in 2011 and filed another 11th placing. A roller coaster with benefits!
This will be Self Assured’’s second try at the Flying Stakes. He was “thrown in the deep end”in last year’s race as a spring four year old and put up a huge performance for second.
Small but Select
Probably the power of Lazarus (1.48.6) but in 2016 there were only six starters in the Flying Stakes the smallest field ever. But not lacking in class. He beat Have Faith in Me (1.47.5) and Field Marshall (1.46.6) ;three of the four fastest NZ based milers altogether in one race.. Christen Me (1.49.1) was fourth and Tiger Tara (1.49.8) last of the 6. Sometimes you don’t know what you’ve got till you lose it !
By comparison there were 10 runners last year-and All Stars trained 7 of them!
Opinion: THE CUP TRAIL.
Swinging into the last month before the great race we look at the future prospects and past gloried
October 11- A Three Horse Cup ?
With the Ashburton Flying Stakes (a great guide) and Kaikoura Cup ( the final trial) yet to come in the lead up to the Cup it is already shaping as a three horse race. Or will this be one of those years when we have an upset ?
Upsets are rare in the Cup and when All Stars horses are in the right buckle they are even less likely-though it is not always easy to decide which one will win the trophy.
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Self Assured, Spankem, Cruz Bromac and Ashley Locaz, All Stars Cup hopes
So far for All Stars it comes down to their two most prominent owners, Jean Feiss (Self Assured) and the Kennard Syndicates “Spankem team”- Phil and Glenys; Ann and Jim Gibbs; Gary and Kerre Woodham and Ken and Karen Breckon as most likely to be making speeches one Tuesday in November.
The two stars have now muscled northerner Copy That out of favouritism for the big race at $2.25 and $2.70 respectively. Copy That, briefly favourite recently and perhaps in a bid to add some spice to the market, is at $5
Classie Brigade, who possibly leads the list of party poopers being proven in the race last year, is next on $11 and then there is a gap to Ashley Locaz at $26.
The Trotting Cup is never an easy market for bookmakers. As noted, upsets are relatively rare-though they do happen- and the odds of the favourites have to be kept short, perhaps even artificially short at times, to prevent a bookes bloodbath and enable early speculation. Though at the moment waiting for the day could be preferable
So it is it a three horse race ?
At this stage you would have to say it is.
Self Assured has been a star since he appeared in the Flying Stakes 12 months ago to take on the older horses. He went on to win an Auckland Cup and then locked horns with Lochinvar Art in Australia. Self Assured just went down to him and the class of the Australian was clearly evident in the Victoria Cup.
Overwhelmingly, though not exclusively, All Stars Cup winners do so at their first attempt. Of the 5 horses who have won 7 Cups from the stable so far 4 of them won the race at their first try and two of those went on to win the following year. That leaves last year’s winner Cruz Bromac as the only one to win at his second attempt having finished fourth to Thefixer in 2018.
Spankem was the favourite last year and was cuffed late in the piece when 2nd. While not many come back from being beaten favourite to win the following year it has happened most notably in recent times with Changeover the 2008 winner.
But favourites, even if just for multiple punters, are great value in the race. They only rarely finish outside the top 4 and those that do tend to be sentimental favourites (Mainland Banner) or false favourites like Mi Muchacho back in 2005 when Mainland Banner won and he was 11th.
The biggest upset this century in. the Cup was Flashing Red winning his second one paying $23. It was one of those amazing races where driver Anthony Butt didn’t feel the horse was going well enough to win with only a round to go but the tough veteran just kept giving. He is a reminder that the unexpected is always on in a Cup race.
But it is not looking likely at this stage of the game in 2020